{"id":1855,"date":"2023-12-29T10:00:39","date_gmt":"2023-12-29T03:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/singhanglogistics.com.vn\/thi-truong-du-bao-trien-vong-kinh-te-toan-cau-va-anh-huong-den-viet-nam-trong-nam-2024\/"},"modified":"2024-01-05T10:12:45","modified_gmt":"2024-01-05T03:12:45","slug":"thi-truong-du-bao-trien-vong-kinh-te-toan-cau-va-anh-huong-den-viet-nam-trong-nam-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/singhanglogistics.com.vn\/en\/thi-truong-du-bao-trien-vong-kinh-te-toan-cau-va-anh-huong-den-viet-nam-trong-nam-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"[Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng] D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf To\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong n\u0103m 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1eabn c\u00f2n nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t c\u1ea3n tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng gi\u1eefa l\u00fac tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u mang t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u kh\u1edfi s\u1eafc nh\u01b0ng ch\u1eefng l\u1ea1i do nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"D\u1ef1
Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n khi n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t lao \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc trong khu v\u1ef1c.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

C\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u <\/span><\/h2>\n

V\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 t\u1ed3n \u0111\u1ecdng v\u00e0 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c l\u1edbn, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u01b0\u1edbc sang n\u0103m 2024. V\u00ec nhi\u1ec1u nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n n\u00ean t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ebd ch\u1eefng l\u1ea1i, th\u1ea5p d\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u1eadp ni\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1edbc. <\/span><\/p>\n

B\u1ed1n n\u0103m t\u1eeb th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch Covid-19 b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t, kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u0169ng ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c v\u1ec1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch. So v\u1edbi GDP \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o GDP to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2023 s\u1ebd th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 3,4% (kho\u1ea3ng 3. 700 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9). S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u. <\/span><\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch, Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c v\u1ec1 qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u th\u1eadm ch\u00ed ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u01b0\u1edbi 2,2% v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c 4,2% so v\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1edbc Covid-19. \u0110\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 73 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p (low income countries \u2013 theo th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi (WB) v\u00e0 Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IMF)) b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn 6,5% GDP do \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch. <\/span><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c ngay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. N\u00f3i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ng\u1eafn g\u1ecdn, Covid-19 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ngh\u00e8o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n, do \u0111\u00f3 b\u1ecb c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng cu\u1ed9c xo\u00e1 \u0111\u00f3i gi\u1ea3m ngh\u00e8o. Th\u00eam h\u01a1n 100 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb l\u00e2m v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng \u0111\u00f3i ngh\u00e8o c\u00f9ng c\u1ef1c. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n
C\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, gia t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed kinh doanh. Nh\u00ecn chung, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1eadm ch\u1ea1p h\u01a1n g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c \u00e9p \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. IMF \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m 7% trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 s\u1eafp t\u1edbi. <\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea1nh tranh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 chia c\u1eaft n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u l\u00e0m hai ph\u1ea7n \u2013 thi\u00ean v\u1ec1 Hoa K\u1ef3 hay ng\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 Trung Qu\u1ed1c. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 b\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e2n li\u1ec7t.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"D\u1ef1
Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o g\u00ec v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m 2024?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a IMF cho bi\u1ebft trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m v\u1eeba r\u1ed3i, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t, giao d\u1ecbch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh bao g\u1ed3m \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp, giao d\u1ecbch u\u1ef7 th\u00e1c v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh ch\u00f3ng h\u01a1n \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c trong khu v\u1ef1c, so v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. C\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, gia t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed kinh doanh. <\/span><\/p>\n

Nh\u00ecn chung, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1eadm ch\u1ea1p h\u01a1n g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c \u00e9p \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. <\/span><\/p>\n

IMF \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m 7% trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 s\u1eafp t\u1edbi. N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd b\u1ecb t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u1ea5u n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Hoa K\u1ef3 \u2013 Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, bi\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 v\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ea1i Ukraine, \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m n\u00e2ng gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u, l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. N\u1ebfu lan r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n, cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u0169 trang Israel \u2013 Hamas (t\u1ea1i Trung \u0110\u00f4ng) c\u0169ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u1ea5u t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t thi\u00ean tai, d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh c\u1ef1c \u0111oan x\u1ea3y ra nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n n\u1eefa c\u0169ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 l\u00e0m h\u01b0 h\u1ea1i nh\u00e0 c\u1eeda, hoa m\u00e0u v\u00e0 t\u0103ng ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m nh\u00e2n th\u1ecd c\u00f9ng c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1c. <\/span><\/p>\n

Trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 v\u1eeba qua, nh\u1eefng nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 n\u00eau tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng khi\u1ebfn t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh, m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5%\/n\u0103m th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 1950-1960 xu\u1ed1ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1t 2,5%\/n\u0103m th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 2020-2024. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a t\u1eebng qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i. T\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 1980 cho \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111\u1ea1i suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf n\u0103m 2008, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh 6-7% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m \u2013 g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. \u0110\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. <\/span><\/p>\n

Sau \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch, t\u1ed5ng kim ng\u1ea1ch th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i t\u0103ng ch\u1eadm d\u1ea7n xu\u1ed1ng, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng 0,8% \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2023 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 3% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1edf c\u1eeda h\u01a1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ch\u1eadm t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ebd c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i (t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u tr\u00ean GDP t\u0103ng cao, x\u1ea5p x\u1ec9 200%).<\/span><\/p>\n

Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf theo khu v\u1ef1c <\/span><\/h2>\n

Kinh t\u1ebf nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia M\u1ef9 th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 2019-2023 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn b\u1edfi \u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00f9ng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n tr\u00ean, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh m\u1ed7i n\u0103m t\u1ea1i Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e0 1,9%, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o (potential growth rate).<\/span><\/p>\n

\"D\u1ef1
Nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh nh\u1ea5t n\u0103m 2024, Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u1ecdt top 20<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc Covid-19, Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u1ec1 qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. L\u00fd do ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 trong n\u0103m 2020-2021, Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh g\u00f3i k\u00edch th\u00edch quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean 5. 000 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9. \u0110\u1ec3 k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ef9 (Fed) c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0a ra kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng thanh kho\u1ea3n kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. <\/span><\/p>\n

Hai s\u1ef1 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp di\u1ec5n \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2024. B\u1ed9i chi ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 v\u00ec Fed \u0111\u00e3 n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t su\u1ed1t trong hai n\u0103m v\u1eeba qua \u2013 m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u1eadm ch\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a Fed s\u1ebd v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp di\u1ec5n \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2024. Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh t\u1ea1i Hoa K\u1ef3 c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 r\u00fat s\u1ea1ch kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 v\u00ec \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch (tr\u00ean 2. 000 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9) v\u00e0 s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n m\u1ee9c ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. V\u00ec v\u1eady, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u0103m 2024 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd h\u1ea1 ch\u1ec9 xu\u1ed1ng 1,5%. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n
S\u1ebd c\u00f3 c\u00fa shock l\u00e0m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eefng l\u1ea1i ho\u1eb7c suy gi\u1ea3m khi m\u1ea1nh tay b\u00e1n h\u1ebft c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 l\u1edbn v\u00e0 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3i th\u1ec3. Nh\u01b0ng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i n\u00e0y gi\u00fap c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 b\u0103ng, l\u00e0m n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u00e0 v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc h\u01a1n n\u1eefa.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng euro t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c2u l\u1ea1i \u0111ang \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 v\u1edbi GDP s\u1ebd t\u0103ng 0, 7% trong n\u0103m 2023 v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o 1% trong n\u0103m 2024. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u0110\u1ee9c s\u1ebd l\u00e2m v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u2013 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m nay; l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m 0,5% trong n\u0103m 2024. <\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00fd do ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c t\u0103ng cao sau cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i Ukraine v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean tr\u00ean 10% khi\u1ebfn Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (ECB) \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00ean cao nh\u1ea5t trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua bu\u1ed9c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m b\u1ed9i chi ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u2013 n\u01a1i d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng, n\u1ebfu kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c. <\/span><\/p>\n

Trong n\u0103m n\u0103m 2019-2023, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh m\u1ed7i n\u0103m c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 4,5%, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c 7, 5% trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc Covid-19 nh\u01b0ng l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng trong th\u1eadp ni\u00ean n\u00e0y. Su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m do s\u1ef1 gi\u00e0 ho\u00e1 nh\u00e2n kh\u1ea9u h\u1ecdc khi\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t sinh n\u1edf gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh, l\u00e0m t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong \u0111\u1ed9 tu\u1ed5i lao \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1ea3m 0,5% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 0,8% trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u1edbi. M\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t lao \u0111\u1ed9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u khi \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng gi\u1ea3m c\u00f2n d\u01b0\u1edbi 5% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. <\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00f3i chung, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd li\u00ean t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m, ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1t 3-4% trong th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 2026-2030 v\u00e0 2-3% trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2031-2035. D\u00f9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n, GDP c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd \u0111u\u1ed5i k\u1ecbp Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0o kho\u1ea3ng n\u0103m 2035 khi c\u1ea3 hai l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 30. 000 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 d\u00f9 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y. <\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u1ee3 qu\u00e1 cao v\u1eabn l\u00e0 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t. N\u1ee3 doanh nghi\u1ec7p l\u00ean t\u1edbi 167% GDP l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c c\u1ef1c cao tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 n\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 (bao g\u1ed3m to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p m\u01b0\u1ee3n n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7) t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 95% GDP, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c k\u00edch th\u00edch c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Trung Qu\u1ed1c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trong n\u0103m 2023, do du l\u1ecbch v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1t c\u0169ng v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng rupee gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 kho\u1ea3ng 11,5% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u00f4 la Hoa K\u1ef3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 2%. <\/span><\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, do l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee9c 2% n\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2024, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ea1i Nh\u1eadt s\u1ebd quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c 1% c\u1ee7a 30 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 “m\u1ea5t m\u00e1t” (1990-2010), k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Nh\u1eadt (BOJ) s\u1ebd k\u1ebft th\u00fac ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u00e2m. <\/span><\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 l\u00e0 Ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7. Nh\u1edd c\u00e1c c\u1ea3i t\u1ed5 kinh t\u1ebf trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kho\u1ea3ng 6,5% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. Tuy nhi\u00ean \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf b\u1edfi v\u00ec t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u00f2n th\u1ea5p, chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 2% so (trong khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 12,4%). <\/span><\/p>\n

Trong th\u1eadp ni\u00ean s\u1eafp t\u1edbi, ch\u00e2u \u00c1 duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kho\u1ea3ng 5%, vai tr\u00f2 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u chi\u1ebfm 70% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kinh t\u1ebf m\u1edbi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n (emerging markets) c\u0169ng s\u1ebd t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eefng xu\u1ed1ng \u2013 kho\u1ea3ng 4% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh hai th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 1990 v\u00e0 2000. <\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ee9ng ch\u1ecbu ba c\u00fa shock l\u1edbn l\u00e0 Covid-19, xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u0169 trang t\u1ea1i Ukraine, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e2ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t nhanh ch\u00f3ng t\u0103ng cao c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0 ECB. . . , do \u0111\u00f3, \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1edd kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i.<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p (low income countries) c\u00f3 n\u1ee3 n\u1ea7n r\u1ea5t cao (3. 500 t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9). Nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng thi\u1ebfu n\u1ee3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m h\u1ecd ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf. Ti\u1ec1n chi tr\u1ea3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00ean d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 t\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee9c 10% thu thu\u1ebf, vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y khi\u1ebfn cho h\u1ecd b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u00e1c chi ti\u00eau thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu v\u1ec1 an sinh x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i, gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c, h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng c\u01a1 s\u1edf, v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u1ea3 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i kh\u00ed h\u1eadu. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ch\u00e2u Phi \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1eb3ng v\u00ec m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec7u thanh ni\u00ean m\u1edbi gia nh\u1eadp v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 25% trong t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ki\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng \u0103n vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, theo Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ch\u00e2u Phi. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1eddi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p l\u00e0m t\u0103ng s\u1ee9c \u00e9p di c\u01b0 t\u1edbi ch\u00e2u \u00c2u c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed1i lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 an ninh t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u00e2u Phi. <\/span><\/p>\n

Kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam <\/span><\/h2>\n

2023 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t n\u0103m v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong s\u00e1u th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, d\u00f9 t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u n\u1ed9i v\u00e0 ngo\u00e0i n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m. <\/span><\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1edd c\u00e1c g\u00f3i k\u00edch th\u00edch c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 n\u00ean n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i trong qu\u00fd 3-2023 v\u1edbi GDP t\u0103ng 5,3%. Th\u00eam v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i t\u0103ng cao v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m. N\u1ebfu duy tr\u00ec xu h\u01b0\u1edbng tr\u00ean, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 7% trong qu\u00fd 4, GDP Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 5% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2023. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ch\u00fang ta ph\u1ea3i nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 h\u01a1n n\u1eefa v\u1ec1 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t chu k\u00ec, k\u00e8m v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111ang c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf \u0111\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nh\u1eb1m d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong n\u0103m 2024 v\u00e0 2025. <\/span><\/p>\n

Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n nhi\u1ec1u bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 2019-2023, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ea1t trung b\u00ecnh 5,2%\/n\u0103m. M\u1ee9c n\u00e0y th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u00e0 5, 5-6%. Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2023-2030, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh 5,6%\/n\u0103m. <\/span><\/p>\n

C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ec1u c\u0103n c\u1ee9 tr\u00ean n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t lao \u0111\u1ed9ng Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u0103ng b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n 1% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t lao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u0103ng 4, 5-5% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n khi n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t lao \u0111\u1ed9ng Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n qu\u00e1 xa so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f9ng khu v\u1ef1c. <\/span><\/p>\n

T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh b\u1edfi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chung c\u1ee7a ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u l\u00e0 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng suy gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. N\u00f3i chung, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong v\u00e0i ba n\u0103m n\u1eefa theo d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n s\u1ebd trong m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng 5, 5-6%. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a WB, IMF v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ch\u00e2u \u00c1 (ADB). M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean gia ngh\u0129 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u1ed5n r\u1ed3i, d\u00f9 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t t\u00ed nh\u01b0ng m\u00e0 c\u0169ng cao h\u01a1n c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. <\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00f4i ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0y l\u00e0 sai: \u0110\u00fang l\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc con c\u1ecdp ch\u00e2u \u00c1 (tr\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c) \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf nhanh ch\u00f3ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 <\/span><\/p>\n